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Mortgage interest rates dipped this week and the Federal Reserve left short-term rates alone, while opening the door to cut them in the fall.

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The average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell eight basis points to 6.86% in the week ending June 18, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates have not moved much in recent months, with the 30-year mortgage remaining above 6.75% since late March. It has stayed under 7% except for a three-week stretch in May when it rose as high as 7.07%.

Fed leaves rates alone
Some of the rate stability can be attributed to the Federal Reserve. The central bank has left short-term interest rates untouched this year, including at its June 17-18 meeting. In a statement, the Fed said it would keep an eye on inflation and employment to decide what to do next — and when.

The central bank generally raises interest rates when inflation gets too high, and reduces rates when unemployment gets too high. It jacked up rates by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 in response to inflation. Then it cut rates by a percentage point last year as inflation subsided.

But inflation is still too high for the Fed's comfort, and the timing of the next rate cut is anyone's guess. When you throw trade policy into the mix, the outlook is even murkier: Will tariffs kick prices higher in a one-time shock, or will they initiate a persistent spiral of rising prices and wages? "Uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished but remains elevated," the Fed said in its statement.

If tariffs cause a one-and-done bump in prices, the Fed might cut rates once or twice this y